Events

Strategic dialogue platforms for regional security and cooperation

The New Security Landscape in the Middle East: Competing Visions and Post-War Realities

Summary of the Inaugural Aqaba Forum

The inaugural Aqaba Forum, convened by the Levant Strategic Centre (LSC), brought together a diverse group of regional experts and practitioners to assess the shifting geopolitical terrain of the Middle East. The event unfolded over two sessions focused on the region's security environment in the wake of the most recent Israel-Iran confrontation and the long-term strategic trajectory of key regional flashpoints. Panelists explored how new alignments, declining international norms, and competing visions are shaping the future, and what this means for governance, stability, and the prospects of peace.

The Middle East is facing a pivotal moment. While the region continues to deal with long-running conflicts, fragile institutions, and rising geopolitical tensions, it also holds incredible promise, from its young population and strategic geography to its growing ambitions for connectivity and prosperity. But despite the region's importance, one thing has been missing: a space for sustained, region-led conversations on security and strategy that are rooted in local realities.

The Aqaba Forum, launched by the Levant Strategic Centre, was created to fill that gap. Drawing inspiration from global platforms like the Munich Security Conference and the Manama Dialogue, the Forum offers something new: a space in the Middle East, about the Middle East, for the Middle East. Rather than replicating externally driven models, this initiative is grounded in regional priorities and informed by local voices, bringing together people who live the region's challenges and are invested in shaping its future.

The Forum doesn't define security in narrow military terms. Instead, it sees security as a much broader concept, one that includes resilience, inclusion, governance, and innovation. Conversations cover a broad array of topics, from youth unemployment, digital transformation, infrastructure, climate vulnerability, and the knowledge gaps holding the region back.

The Forum takes place in Amman, a pivotal juncture in the region. Jordan sits at the heart of the Levant, has a strong tradition of diplomatic neutrality, and is trusted across political divides. And with LSC's policy networks, academic reach, and regional insight, it's uniquely placed to host this kind of dialogue.

This inaugural event marked not only the launch of the Aqaba Forum, but also the formal launch of the Levant Strategic Centre itself, under the leadership of its founder and president, Dr. Zaid Eyadat. The forum was held in partnership with the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology's ROLES project at the University of Tokyo, highlighting a commitment to fostering cross-regional collaboration and policy-relevant dialogue. As one of LSC's flagship initiatives, the Aqaba Forum is intended to be a recurring platform for strategic exchange, based in Amman, but regionally and globally engaged.

This first session of the Aqaba Forum took place at a time of regional upheaval, from Gaza and the West Bank to Syria, Iran, and Lebanon, and was designed to spark frank, forward-looking conversations. The Forum will grow into a long-term platform for strategic dialogue, diplomacy, and trust-building, bringing together leaders, thinkers, and practitioners to help shape a more secure and cooperative regional future.

A Region at a Turning Point

Participants described the current moment as a transformative one for the Middle East, with the recent Twelve-Day War viewed as a regional inflection point comparable to historical shocks such as the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 2003 Iraq War, and the 2011 Arab uprisings. The forum opened with questions framing the discussion: What does the region look like now? Who are the key actors shaping it? What rules are emerging from the new order? And what constitutes an "end game" for the major powers?

The discussion centered on four overlapping regional visions: one prioritizing regional order around Israeli security imperatives; another envisioning a resurgent Turkey filling the vacuum left by a weakened Iran; a third based on Iran recalibrating its position after battlefield setbacks; and a fourth driven by Gulf Arab states aiming for regional prosperity and stability in line with national development strategies.

Future Scenarios for the Middle East

A set of three strategic scenarios was presented to help conceptualize where the region may be headed. The first envisions continued war and disorder, with recurring rounds of violence and no clear resolution. The second scenario imagines a balance among five regional powers: Israel, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and the Gulf states, maintaining a relatively stable situation, with some peripheral wars. The third and most optimistic scenario foresees a transition toward peace and integration, akin to post-war Europe, including normalization, conflict resolution, and economic cooperation.

While acknowledging the uncertainty of which scenario may unfold, participants emphasized the role of political agency and societal will in shaping outcomes. The regional trajectory, they argued, is not inevitable; it will be determined by the choices of states and leaders in the months and years ahead.

Strategic Realignment and Fragile Transformations

Speakers described the region as undergoing a moment of structural transformation. Shifting alignments such as the Abraham Accords and new diplomatic roles assumed by Gulf states are reshaping the regional security architecture. Yet the extent to which these realignments address underlying conflicts or contribute to long-term stability remains unclear.

This transformation is taking place amid the erosion of the Western-led international order. Participants expressed concern about the hollowing out of international legal norms, including humanitarian law, and raised questions about whether regional societies could offer alternative normative frameworks. The crisis in global governance has deepened the vacuum of authority and accountability in the region.

Israel's Shifting Posture

A considerable portion of the discussion focused on how Israel's strategic vision has evolved in the aftermath of October 7. Internally, Israeli politics have shifted sharply right, empowering security-first approaches and hardline factions. Externally, Israel's military superiority, particularly in cyber and intelligence domains, has consolidated its status as the most powerful regional actor. But this has also led to questions about how Israel intends to convert tactical success into diplomatic or strategic gains.

Three competing outlooks were identified within Israel: a minority still advocating for a two-state solution and negotiated peace; a more dominant security-centered vision that deprioritizes the Palestinian issue in favour of normalization and confrontation with Iran; and a third, hybrid approach that seeks to balance military strength with diplomatic outreach. The internal contest between these perspectives will shape Israel's role in the region and its ability to navigate a volatile regional environment.

The Decline of Non-State Actors and the Return of the State

A recurring theme across the panel was the decline of non-state armed actors. Once-dominant forces like ISIS and Hezbollah have been degraded or contained, and many participants suggested that the region is entering a new phase marked by the reassertion of state primacy. Nonetheless, this transition is incomplete. Armed groups remain embedded in political systems, and the challenge lies in integrating or disbanding them without triggering renewed conflict.

Syria and Iraq were discussed as test cases. In Syria, the reintegration of armed groups and the stabilization of areas like Sweida are critical for a meaningful transition. In Iraq, questions persist about the future role of paramilitary forces in a post-U.S. security framework. Without clear plans for state consolidation, these countries risk stagnating.

Palestine: Still in Crisis

Several panelists stressed that Palestine remains in crisis. The prolonged conflict in Gaza and the deepening occupation of the West Bank have further eroded the feasibility of a two-state solution. The West Bank is marked by growing settler violence, expanded Israeli military presence, and the near-total collapse of the Oslo framework. Settlements have spread rapidly, especially in Area C, which comprises over 60% of the West Bank and remains under full Israeli control.

Palestinian political leadership is viewed as illegitimate by large segments of the population. Efforts to install new leaders from within the existing system have failed to gain popular traction, and elections remain blocked, both by internal political divisions and external constraints. The current situation leaves Palestinians fragmented, disenfranchised, and pessimistic about the future of statehood.

Civilians and the Humanitarian Cost of Inaction

The panel also emphasized the human cost of ongoing conflict. Across Gaza, Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere, civilians are the primary victims of violence and displacement but remain largely excluded from political negotiations. Participants noted that humanitarian systems are overwhelmed, health infrastructure is collapsing, and access to basic services is increasingly restricted. These conditions foster cycles of despair and radicalization.

There was widespread concern that the resources dedicated to war far exceed those invested in de-escalation or reconstruction. The longer the international community delays addressing these crises, the greater the long-term cost will be, for host states, donor countries, and displaced communities alike.

External Influence and Global Power Dynamics

Discussion also turned to the role of global powers, particularly the United States. While the U.S. remains a central actor in shaping regional security, its policies were criticized for enabling hardline strategies, particularly in relation to Israel. American support, whether through direct aid, diplomatic backing, or veto power in international institutions, was seen as emboldening maximalist policies that undermine prospects for peace.

Institutionalizing Strategic Dialogue

The second session opened with the announcement of three new strategic initiatives: the annual Aqaba Forum, the Japan-Middle East Strategic Dialogue, and the Jordan Regional Security Forum. These platforms aim to provide regular, institutionalized spaces for both public and closed-door engagement on pressing security challenges in the region.

The Future of Gaza and the West Bank

Discussion returned to the future of governance in Gaza and the West Bank. The idea of a "day after" plan, once based on assumptions of ceasefire, hostage release, and reconstruction, has been overtaken by the scale of devastation and despair. Gaza remains politically fractured, with declining support for its current leadership and no viable path toward unity with the West Bank.

The West Bank, meanwhile, is rapidly being reshaped by settlement expansion and infrastructure that isolates Palestinian communities. The territory has effectively been reduced to disconnected enclaves, inaccessible to one another due to hundreds of checkpoints and settler-only roads. A recent legislative vote in Israel exploring formal annexation signals a growing shift away from even symbolic support for a two-state framework.

In this context, many argued that Palestinians may soon be left with only Areas A and B, less than 40% of the West Bank, as their territorial base. This would formalize an already existing reality in which Palestinians have neither sovereignty nor a clear path toward independence.

Syria's Uncertain Transition

The future of Syria was also discussed at length. While some areas appear to be stabilizing, others remain deeply contested. Sweida, long insulated from the broader civil war, has now experienced violence that suggests a shift in the conflict's internal dynamics. The question remains whether Syria can transition toward a more inclusive political order, or whether the return of a centralized, authoritarian regime, possibly backed by Islamist factions, will take hold.

Competing coalitions and fragmented authority continue to define the landscape. The regime's durability may depend on its ability to balance alliances with Islamist groups while maintaining external relationships with regional powers. Without transitional justice or reconciliation, however, any political arrangement is likely to be fragile.

Normalization and Public Opinion

Finally, the session addressed the future of normalization efforts between Israel and Arab states. While formal relationships persist in countries like the UAE and Bahrain, domestic public opinion has turned against normalization, particularly in light of the war in Gaza and ongoing settlement expansion.

Some argued that normalization will not proceed further unless there is progress on the Palestinian issue. Others contended that public condemnation has not halted security or economic cooperation, which often continues quietly behind the scenes. The disconnect between official policy and public sentiment may increasingly constrain policymakers, especially in monarchies.