Second Japan–Middle East Strategic Dialogue
The Middle East is entering one of its most consequential transitions in decades. Since the inaugural Japan–Middle East Strategic Dialogue in 2024, the region has been reshaped by war, political fragmentation, shifting alliances, and new energy and security realities. For Japan—whose prosperity and stability are intertwined with developments across this region—this moment demands renewed strategic engagement built on trusted partnerships.
Understanding the new Middle East security landscape
The aftermath of October 7 and the prolonged Gaza conflict has recalibrated power balances across the Middle East. The sudden collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024 shattered long-standing assumptions about Syrian stability, opening a turbulent transitional phase defined by fragmented authority, local power centres, and shifting regional influence. Iran's long-standing axis has weakened; Israel's strategic doctrine is being reassessed amid unprecedented domestic polarization; and Gulf states are refining their security strategies as U.S. priorities evolve. The regional order is now fluid, uncertain, and highly dynamic.
Historical interconnections and future potential
The Levant Strategic Centre (LSC) situates current crises within a broader civilizational space linking Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, Israel, Cyprus, Iraq, and parts of Türkiye and Egypt. Historically a crossroads of trade, culture, and ideas, this region's deep interconnections offer untapped potential for cooperation, stability, and innovation, even as new geopolitical fractures sharpen.
The post-Assad vacuum is reshaping security dynamics from Lebanon to Iraq. Competing actors—Türkiye, Iran and Gulf states—are repositioning while borders remain fragile and local networks realign.
Hezbollah's significant losses and dwindling resources have reignited national debate over weapons, sovereignty, and the state's monopoly on force.
Baghdad faces renewed tensions with Erbil, militia integration challenges, and complex balancing between Iran, the U.S., and the Gulf while remaining central to regional energy and connectivity.
A resurgent strategic actor, linking northern Syria, NATO, Russia, and emerging energy corridors across the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.
Now pivotal in Gaza diplomacy, humanitarian access, Red Sea security, and regional energy cooperation, offering major entry points for Japanese investment.
Gas discoveries, renewables, and infrastructure projects are redefining regional diplomacy and competition.
A fragile peace agreement and growing international recognition of Palestine have revived debate over the two-state solution and regional de-escalation pathways.
Jordan's Central Role: Throughout this uncertainty, Jordan stands out as the region's stabilizing anchor—trusted, credible, and indispensable for diplomacy, refugee management, and cross-border energy and water initiatives. For Japan, Jordan remains a critical platform for advancing strategic, humanitarian, and economic objectives.
Japan's strategic role after October 7
Syria's transition and its regional spillover effects
Iraq's shifting political and security architecture
Egypt's diplomatic and energy leadership
Türkiye's evolving posture and its role in regional connectivity
The renewed Israeli–Palestinian file
Maritime security and supply-chain resilience
Humanitarian and development imperatives across Gaza and Syria
Climate, energy transition, and trilateral Jordan–Israel–Palestine cooperation
Expanding Jordan–Japan relations across security, development, and energy sectors